Type 14 Nagoya Nambu 11.3 "Off-Date" - Fact or Fiction?

by Mike and Dan Larkin

For many years, collectors have known of the large block of Type 14 Nagoya Nambu 11.3-dates which have both lower and higher numbers than the 11.4 serial range. Specimens from the higher range have been called "off-dates" and have, in some cases, been offered at premium pricing. This block is also peculiar in that it signals an apparent halt in production for six months as serial sequencing stopped in 11.3 and then continued in 11.9. (The one reported 11.8 example is probably a mistaken listing for an 11.3.) The 11.4-range listed is very small in comparison to the 11.3 "off-date" range and appears early in total 11.3-dated production.

An analysis of known example serial numbers reported by collectors indicates to us that production did not cease in 11.3 but continued on a regular schedule up to 11.9. The production for some reason was dated 11.3 and not 11.4 through 11.8. Our assertion is based on the total volume of production over the period 10.10 to 11.10 compared to monthly production totals and on the number of reported examples. The production ranges /listings /totals are as follows:

Production continued on a fairly regular schedule 10.10 through 11.3 (first range). The 11.4 reported examples did not appear until the previous monthly average had been reached in 11.3. However, production increased dramatically in 11.3 (second range). Production for the combined 11.4 and 11.3 (second range) is six times the previous monthly totals. If the 11.4 and 11.3 (second range) total is averaged over the 11.4 to 11.8 period, production continues at about 850-900 per month. Total production over the entire 10.10 to 11.10 period averaged just less than 900 per month.

An alternative to continued production is a six-fold increase in output after the 11.3 first range. We do not think this is very plausible since previous monthly production was very constant, and no higher production capacity had been demonstrated. Therefore, since it is highly unlikely production increased, and, since total production spanning the 10.10 to 11.10 period approximates monthly production ranges, it is very probable production continued on a fairly regular basis. Our assertion is further bolstered by the listing of known surviving specimens. A very high number of 11.3 examples have been reported compared to other months. Of the 91 11-dates reported, 48 are 11.3 and only 2 are 11.4 (both confirmed). Again, like total production, if the 11.3 total reported examples are averaged over the 11.4 to 11.8 period, they approximate the other reported monthly totals.

To further the analysis, if production did continue past 11.4 then why are examples dated 11.3 only and not 11.5 through 11.8? Could there have been mechanical problems? It is possible but highly improbable since serialization continued. Was this a conscious decision? It probably was, but why? Are there outside contributing factors? Unknown, but probable. Remember, this period also spans the cessation of production by the Tokyo / Kokura Arsenal in 11.6, and 11-date inspection marks do change during this period. Is there a link? Maybe an analysis of individual examples for fit / finish, proof marks / locations, etc., to span the period before and after 11.3 with comparison to period Tokyo / Kokura examples would shed light. (Hint: This would be a good project for some BANZAI member.) Hopefully, an explanation will be found.

Now, some further comments. We have seen 11.3 examples offered for sale and described as being scarce or rare with higher pricing. From known examples reported to us, it appears that 11.3-dates are the most numerous of the 11-date examples. Based on total production and availability, it would seem that higher pricing is not warranted. If you are looking for a rarity in this range, the two 11.4 examples would be better candidates to show out-of-range block serializing. In our opinion, pricing for 11-dates should be based on condition only.

We invite anyone with comments or further information to respond to this article. Anyone wishing copies of the serial number data should reference our Type 14 Serial List article elsewhere in this issue. Thank you.

Mike and Dan Larkin